MUMBAI — Indian government bond yields are expected to open marginally higher on Wednesday, as U.S. yields continued their upward momentum, while markets brace for another round of aggressive monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The benchmark Indian 10-year government bond yield is seen in a 7.24%-7.28% band, a trader with a private bank said. The yield ended at 7.2645% on Tuesday and has risen 18 basis points in the last five sessions.
“A move of 75 basis points by the Fed is factored in, but if the commentary is hawkish, we may see the break of 7.30% on the benchmark,” the trader said.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2011 on Tuesday and hit 3.60%, as investors expect the Fed to hike rates for a longer period than expected.
The two-year yield, which typically reflects interest rate expectations, was trading close to its highest level in 15 years. Fed’s policy decision is expected later in the day, with markets pricing in an 18% probability of a 100 bps hike.
The Fed’s policy meet outcome will be followed by the Reserve Bank of India’s decision due on Sept. 30, with many market participants expecting a 50 bps rate hike to control stubbornly high inflation that has remained above the central bank’s upper tolerance band for eight months.
The central bank raised interest rates by a total of 140 basis points during May-August, with economists now talking about the possibility of terminal repo rate being over 6%.
Meanwhile, a rates strategist with HSBC expects bond yields to remain in a narrow range this year as an inclusion of domestic bonds in global indexes may not materialize in 2022.
“We still see the inclusion as a low probability event for the current year. Our base case is that index inclusion is likely to be delayed to next year,” Himanshu Malik, Asia-Pacific rates strategist, HSBC, told Reuters, adding that he expects yields to rise next year. KEY INDICATORS: ** Brent crude futures little changed at $90.64 per barrel ** 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 3.5473%, two-year note at 3.9494% ** Reserve Bank of India to auction Treasury Bills worth 210 billion Indian rupees ($2.63 billion)
($1 = 79.8260 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)