PARIS — Strategie Grains raised its forecasts for this year’s rapeseed crop in the European Union, citing better than expected harvests, which would add to already large world supplies, eventually weighing on prices.
The consultancy in an oilseed report estimated the 2022 rapeseed harvest in the 27-member bloc at 19.46 million tonnes, up from its forecast of 19.15 million last month, and now 14.5% above 2021.
“Following good harvest results, production is revised higher in Germany, France and Poland,” it said.
The consultancy also increased its EU sunflower seed crop forecast to 9.25 million tonnes from 9.17 million seen last month but still 10% below last year.
The increase was far from erasing Strategie Grains’ 1.2 million tonnes cut last month when it cited drought and successive heatwaves slashing EU summer crops including maize.
The consultancy forecast 2022 EU soybean production at 2.47 million tonnes versus 2.49 million tonnes last month and now 8.2% below last year’s level.
On the rapeseed supply side, it raised its import estimate due to higher projected shipments out of Ukraine and an increased forecast for Australia’s canola harvest.
Higher rapeseed production and imports this season would be partially offset by a rise in exports and increased demand, notably due to better crushing margins than for soybean or sunflower seeds, it said.
Strategie Grain expects European rapeseed prices to fall further from record highs earlier this year.
“In the near term, and during the winter, we do not anticipate any reduction in rapeseed prices – since demand for rapeseed oil from biodiesel producers will hold strong – but they could fall relatively sharply in early 2023 when Australian canola and South American soybeans enter the market,” it said.
Euronext rapeseed futures have lost 9% since the start of the season on July 1 and are down 42% from a record high in late April as the supply outlook improved. (Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide; editing by Louise Heavens and Jason Neely)