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Here’s a look at the leave application decisions that the
Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on February 2, 2023.
Each week, we’ll be providing a short blog post that
summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the
probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be
based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of
every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of
Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.
Each week, we’ll group cases into four categories:
- Cases to Watch – These are cases
where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will
be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that
leave will be granted. While this doesn’t mean that all of
them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong
candidates. - Possible Contenders – These are
cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that
leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat
above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this
category won’t get leave, on average, we expect to see a
healthy minority of cases in this category being granted
leave. - Unlikely Contenders
– These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and
5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against
leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from
time to time. - Long-Shots – These are cases where
our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get
leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an
outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will
not be providing summaries for these cases.
If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave
predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about
our model here.
THIS WEEK’S CASES
There are 24 leave application decisions coming out on February
2, 2023. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful
leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court
of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases
where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or
on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 24 cases in which
we’ll give a prediction.
You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up
for leave decisions this week here.
Cases to Watch
His Majesty the King v Edwin Tsang
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 34% chance of getting leave.
Possible Contenders
Jim Shot Both Sides, et al. v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 15% chance of getting leave.
Matelot de première classe C.D. Edwards, et al. c Sa
Majesté le Roi
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 13% chance of getting leave.
Don Johnson v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 13% chance of getting leave.
B.E.M. v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 12% chance of getting leave.
Sergent S.R. Proulx, et al. c Sa Majesté le
Roi
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 10% chance of getting leave.
Earthco Soil Mixtures Inc. v Pine Valley Enterprises
Inc.
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 10% chance of getting leave.
Malkiat Singh Baring, et al. v Harminder Singh Grewal, et
al
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 9% chance of getting leave.
Sam Donaldson v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 7% chance of getting leave.
Wayne Steven Hollaus v Attorney General of Canada on behalf
of the United States of America
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 6% chance of getting leave.
Sergent A.J.R. Thibault c Sa Majesté le Roi
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 5% chance of getting leave.
Unlikely Contenders
Kamy Lafrenière c Sa Majesté le Roi
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Directeur général des élections du
Québec c Pierre Karl Péladeau, et
al
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Jayco Inc. v His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, et
al.
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Corporal K.L. Christmas v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 1% chance of getting leave.
Lieutenant (Navy) C.A.I. Brown v His Majesty the
King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a 1% chance of getting leave.
Long-Shots
Human Concern International v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Affan Ashraf v Jazz Aviation LP
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Denise C. Nagel v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Ravi Raj Walia v College of Veterinarians of
Ontario
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Ali Maroofi v Health Professions Review Board
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Xiaoli Chen, et al. v Workplace Safety and Insurance Appeals Tribunal, et al.
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Georges Lemieux c S.I.M.
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Arben Dauti v His Majesty the King
- Our Model’s Prediction: This case
has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general
guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought
about your specific circumstances.
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